Rafael Weakening in the Gulf but Creating Big Problems in the Deep South
Although Hurricane Rafael remains offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, it continues to send moisture north, causing flooding across the Gulf coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through Monday evening.
The storm's moisture, combined with an approaching front over the Deep South, is producing heavy rain and training storms, where rainfall totals could exceed 8 to 14 inches. While flooding risks will decrease after Monday as the remnants move south, MonarchView offers hyper-local insights to help businesses assess specific flooding threats. By analyzing Rafael’s structure, track, and regional weather patterns, Monarch meteorologists provided early warnings, giving clients a chance to prepare and protect their assets with our proprietary flood risk scoring.
.png)
Atmospheric River Pushes Systems into Northwest
Multiple rounds of storm systems will push through the Northwest this week from an atmospheric river event fueling rain across the lower elevations of Northern California, Oregon, and Washington and snow within the mountains.
%2520copy.png)
The moisture plume will be modest but last a few days, leading to a marginal risk for flash flooding with bursts of heavy rainfall rates of a half inch per hour stretched over several days. MonarchView determines flash flooding and overall risks by leveraging what is happening in the soil with the atmosphere. Multi-day rainfall totals from Monday through Thursday may exceed 1 to 2 inches daily, leading to very saturated soils with a few flooding incidents from excessive runoff.
Finally Rain and Some Relief for Exceptional Drought and Wildfires in Northeast
The northeastern U.S. has been experiencing a significant drought due to a weather pattern that diverts storms or weakens them before reaching the region. Areas like West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are facing severe drought conditions. These areas have not seen meaningful rain in more than a month. With declining streamflows and water supplies, utility companies are relying more on non-rain-dependent energy sources. While up to half an inch of rain is possible by Monday night, with more light rain later in the week, these smaller amounts will barely put a dent in the drought but will at least partly reduce the region's rare wildfire risks.
INTERNATIONAL STORIES:
Multiple Tropical Systems To Impact East Asian Countries
Three tropical systems are set to collide with Asian countries throughout this week — Yinxing, Toraji, and Man-Yi. The Northern Philippines, Vietnam, and China’s islands of Hainan and Southeast Coast all stand in the way of strong systems delivering strong winds and heavy rain leading to life-threatening conditions. Multiple evacuations have been or will soon be ordered with travel restrictions and local economies closed as parts of these countries face heavy to devastating rainfall. The Philippines could be especially hard hit, where multiple storms have in just the past month or so wiped out crops and infrastructure.
Italy And Nearby Countries Face Epically Cold Winter
A growing La Niña paired with a cold-promoting weather pattern might release multiple arctic air masses over the region this winter — all while blocking the entry of mild oceanic air for relief. This would set up a winter not seen in decades, sending periods of temperatures plummeting to -10 to -20°C (14 to -4°F). Although not guaranteed to happen, should this pattern align, record cold temperatures paired with many snow storms and ice events might leave the region scrambling to sustain as energy companies struggle to keep up. December through February will need to be monitored very closely.
Millions Of Aussies Battle Heat And Severe Weather This Week
The northern tier of the country is bracing for severe thunderstorms producing hail and damaging winds for the first half of the week with much of the entire northern region seeing temperatures soar near or above 45°C (113°F). Fire bans are already in place and expected to extend to at least midweek. A worsening climate has delivered the third warmest stretch on record across Australia from April through October. Only narrowly behind 2005 and 2013. With the country seeing less rainfall than it used to, increased wildfires are possible with the ‘dry season’ expanding on both ends of the calendar.
***
About Monarch Weather & Climate Intelligence
Visit our homepage www.monarchweather.com or message us directly Team@MonarchWeather.com.
Monarch challenges leaders to discover a new way to forecast their business. Keep Monarch on your Radar.
We are a woman-owned business with a team of Certified Consulting Meteorologists (CCM) and GIS Analysts, providing meteorological and climate services via custom forecasting, modeling and advisory within the insurance, tech, energy, real estate, transportation and agricultural sectors
